In 1973, Britain joined the European Union, and in February this year, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that a referendum would be held off to Europe in June. Britain and the EU's "love" for 43 years why the sudden mention of the "break up"? Once off the European impact on the global economy? Britain and the European Union "break up" is also able to do "Friends"?
1) tangled in the past: Europe suspected mood persists. British history known as the sun does not an empire, politically, economically dominant position in the British sense of sovereignty and national pride has always existed. In recent years, EU policy more and more restrictions on the Member States, the United Kingdom wants greater autonomy, more and more strong desire to pursue independence.
2) concerns the future: the EU more "disease" ridden. In the global economic downturn, the European debt crisis, the refugee crisis context, the EU inflation hovering around zero value, the effect of negative interest rates to stimulate the diminuendo. The British economy is better than the European Union, the feeling of being dragged off to Europe to become the fuse.
1) trade: overall negative side. After removal of the EU relationship between Britain and the European Union may have five optional modes: Norway mode, the Turkish model, FTA mode, Swiss model, MFN mode. Regardless of the mode, it means that free trade between the EU and the United Kingdom is restricted.
2) Investment: less attractive. FDI stock in the UK there are more than 40% from the EU, 50% of the non-EU European headquarters of multinational companies set up in the UK, from Europe to reduce the UK attractive. Off Europe brings uncertainty and fear will reduce investment in the UK domestic enterprises.
3) Employment: may be reduced. The EU average is an about 30-year-old migrant, immigrant inflow to some extent eased the English aging, from Europe, the economic and trade contraction will reduce the demand for labor, for the British native is off to Europe may outweigh the benefits.
4) "membership fee": reduce the rate should not be optimistic. Enjoy the benefits of the EU single market countries, Norway, Switzerland, the EU also needs to indirect contributions budget. Once off the UK in Europe, it is also likely to fall into either has to pay a membership fee, and no right to speak of the difficulties.
5) Financial Markets: GBP more intense reaction. Sterling has been the worst-performing developed currencies. If in June this year, the British decided to take off in Europe, the British pound against the US dollar at risk below 1.3.
Trade and investment negotiations or challenges encountered
The EU is currently China's largest trading partner, is crucial for China. From the export perspective, the EU is China's second-largest export economy in 2015, Chinese exports to the EU 356 billion US dollars, of which the UK has 59.6 billion, accounting for 16.7%, second only to Germany. From the point of view of imports, the EU is China's largest source of imports economies in 2015, China imported $ 208.9 billion from the EU, of which imports from the United Kingdom 18.9 billion, accounting for 9%. From the perspective
of the balance of trade, the EU is China's net source of demand, 2015 China to the EU trade surplus up to $ 147.1 billion.
Even the British off in Europe, the impact on China's current trade is limited. The current EU average tariff level was 1% in the low position. Considering the amount of China's economy and international status, the European Union, China and the United Kingdom to raise tariffs even if Britain left the level of probability is not great. Because of the presence of China's high trade deficit, the EU has been China hopes to promote the liberalization of investment and trade in services, but also China and the related negotiations, so the next trade, the EU will be more liberalization between the UK off to Europe on China trade limited impact.
But the progress of the future China-EU free trade and investment agreement negotiations or affected. Within the EU, the British firm to promote free trade. British Prime Minister Cameron in 2013 proposed to support China and the EU signed a free trade agreement, but the other members of the EU should first consider China to relax investment and services liberalization, before the signing of the FTA. Current EU - China investment agreement negotiations actively, once the British withdraw from the EU, will be difficult to influence EU decision-making, the progress of the negotiations between China and the EU or affected.
Transient stability of the RMB exchange rate. Since February, the United States delayed the rate hike, the dollar; short-term improvement in the domestic economy, inflation remains moderate. Benefit from the improved internal and external environment pegged to a basket of currencies the yuan continues to appreciate against the dollar since February of this year but also makes short-term capital outflows improved, March foreign exchange reserves for the first time five months of positive growth since. For the purposes of the RMB exchange rate appreciation of the short-term course very happy, but did not change the substance of the currency issued, inflation continued to rise, the economic consequences are difficult to continue to improve gradually reflected, in fact, can not withstand the wind and rain.
Future rate hikes by the US, Europe, and the UK off factors, the devaluation pressure may be renewed. First, the US economy has been improving in February, core PCE inflation has rebounded to 1.68% in March non-farm payrolls added 215,000, better than expected, the Fed will raise interest rates late will not be absent. Secondly, the British pound will impact the off Europe and the euro, the dollar may push up the index. If the Fed to raise interest rates, together with Britain struck off Europe, the yuan is likely to depreciate regeneration pressure.
The EU is currently China's largest trading partner, is essential for China. Our company has many customers in the UK who have been working closely to provide customers with injection mold manufacturing, injection molding processing serve. Britain to leave the EU, resulting in the devaluation of the pound, Chinese medical, automotive and other traditional manufacturing to have a lot of influence. But we hope have been working down